Forward Track Record

Every prediction is logged before its horizon and graded after it matured — no backtests, no survivor editing, control group included. Machine-readable: GET /api/track. Generated 2026-07-05T00:26:18.

Honest verdict (verbatim)

Long-horizon (canonical early-warning) has ZERO matured calls yet - p_canonical deliberately collapses to its 0.3 prior until the first cohort matures (2026-07-12T09:32:53). Short-horizon and council records above are real and already graded. Directional layer: the maturing 14d cohort is event-occurrence calls WITHOUT inherent direction - it is excluded from directional stats by design; raw signed ret_pct is recorded for transparency.

Canonical early warning (14-day horizon)

12bets open
0bets graded
28control open
no data yetbet hit-rate

First maturity: 2026-07-12T09:32:53. Bets = high-conviction canonical calls; the control group are deliberate low-conviction calls ("these stay quiet") — discrimination between the two is what proves skill, not hit volume.

Short-horizon calls (<7 days, autopilot)

452graded
31.2%hit-rate
0.458Brier
181open
confidence bucketnhit-rate
niedrig60%
mittel5456%
hoch39228%

Hit = notable market move on the entity within the horizon (movement proxy, not directional P&L). Brier: lower is better; 0.25 = coin flip at 50% confidence.

Directional layer (parallel, additive)

2directed calls
452excluded (undirected)
0.71%mean ret
158with price path

Calls without an inherent direction are EXCLUDED, not fabricated. Raw signed returns are reported for transparency; any claim that they beat chance must first be registered in the multiple-testing register.

Council verdicts (48h forward grading)

90total
5graded
0%hit-rate
0.558trust factor

Method